Estimating the Effect of Protected Lands on the Development and Conservation of Their Surroundings

Abstract:  The fate of private lands is widely seen as key to the fate of biodiversity in much of the world. Organizations that work to protect biodiversity on private lands often hope that conservation actions on one piece of land will leverage the actions of surrounding landowners. Few researchers have, however, examined whether protected lands do in fact encourage land conservation nearby or how protected lands affect development in the surrounding landscape. Using spatiotemporal data sets on land cover and land protection for three sites (western North Carolina, central Massachusetts, and central Arizona), we examined whether the existence of a protected area correlates with an increased rate of nearby land conservation or a decreased rate of nearby land development. At all sites, newly protected conservation areas tended to cluster close to preexisting protected areas. This may imply that the geography of contemporary conservation actions is influenced by past decisions on land protection, often made for reasons far removed from concerns about biodiversity. On the other hand, we found no evidence that proximity to protected areas correlates with a reduced rate of nearby land development. Indeed, on two of our three sites the development rate was significantly greater in regions with more protected land. This suggests that each conservation action should be justified and valued largely for what is protected on the targeted land, without much hope of broader conservation leverage effects.     

Using Distance from Putative Source Woodlots to Predict Occurrence of Forest Birds in Putative Sinks

Abstract:  For some species of forest-breeding birds, productivity is much higher in large forest fragments than in small forest fragments and is higher than the level needed to replace individuals within the fragment (sources). Thus large forest fragments potentially provide excess individuals to neighboring small fragments where productivity is much lower and not adequate for replacement (sinks). We used occurrence data and distances between putative sources and sinks for four species of forest birds with this pattern of demography in large and small forest fragments to predict occupancy in small fragments. For the Ovenbird (  Seiurus aurocapilla ), Wood Thrush (  Hylocichla mustelina ), Veery ( Catharus fuscescens ), and Rose-breasted Grosbeak ( Pheucticus ludovicianus ), distance from large woodlots was a significant predictor of occurrence in small woodlots. Distance from large woodlots did not predict occupancy of Red-eyed Vireos (  Vireo olivaceus ), a species with no apparent difference in productivity in relation to fragment size. Neither vegetation features nor area of the small woodlots adequately explained patterns of occupancy for any species. These results suggest that maintenance of large, productive forest fragments benefit regional occurrence of forest-breeding birds by providing individuals to neighboring small woodlots. Limited reproduction in these small woodlots means that they may act as a reservoir for excess individuals in the case of catastrophic events that result in vacancies in source woodlots. Conservation and sound forest management of small forests should be directed particularly toward those closer to large regional forests.     

Predicting the Probability of Outbreeding Depression

Abstract: Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re‐establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders’ equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders’ equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive.     

Field Evaluation of the PAS III Passive Alcohol Sensor

Passive alcohol sensors (PAS) are screening devices designed to sample nonintrusively the ambient air around a driver's mouth to determine the presence of alcohol. Studies have shown that PAS devices can aid police officers in the identification of unpaired drivers, particularly at sobriety checkpoints. Data from a 1996 nationwide survey, in which 5,392 drivers were evaluated for alcohol using both the PAS III (a passive sensor housed in a flashlight) and evidential breath test devices, have allowed the determination of appropriate criteria at various blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) for detecting impaired drivers in the field. Using the appropriate criteria, the PAS III can identify about 75% of the drivers with BACs at or above 0.10%, and 70% at or above 0.08%. This is a vast improvement over the 40-50% detection rate currently achieved by police officers at checkpoints not using sensors. Using the PAS III few drivers would be identified inappropriately. At the criterion recommended for detecting BACs at or above 0.08%, about 14% of drivers with BACs of 0.02-0.05% would be incorrectly identified as having a higher BAC. Field studies have shown that when police officers rely on observation alone about 20% of drivers with low BACs are detained for further evaluation. More widespread use of passive sensors by police officers would aid in the detection of drinking drivers. Sensors also could provide an additional deterrent to the general public if they believe that when stopped by the police after drinking they will be detained for further evaluation.     

Views of Parents of Teenagers About Graduated Licensing After Experience with the Laws

Parents of 15 year-olds in Florida and Connecticut were first interviewed in 1996 about their views concerning new licensing requirements in their states. Connecticut had introduced a 6-month learner's permit requirement, effectively increasing the licensing age from 16 years to 16 years, 6 months (16 years, 4 months with driver education). Florida enacted a 6-month learner's permit period plus a night driving restriction for 16 and 17 year-olds. In 1996, parents were very supportive of the new requirements, particularly the minimum permit period and nighttime restrictions, even though they recognized they would be inconvenienced to some extent. The same parents were interviewed again in 1999, after most of their teenagers had obtained driver's licenses, and were even more supportive than before of the additional restrictions. Few parents reported that the laws inconvenienced them, and less than 20 percent said the laws had made it harder for their teenagers to get jobs. Furthermore, many were in favor of additional requirements, such as teenage passenger restrictions, not currently part of their states” laws. These findings should encourage other states to proceed with graduated licensing systems or to augment systems already in place.     

The Economic Value of Open Space: A Review and Synthesis

/ Communities increasingly face development pressures that can irreversibly alter open space lands. While the monetary costs and benefits of development are typically known, the corresponding values of natural lands are complex and difficult to measure. This paper reviews different concepts of economic value in relation to open space, describes methods for quantifying these values, and presents examples of each from published literature. Open space benefits accruing to citizens as market values or consumers' surplus include market and enhancement values, production values, natural systems value, use and nonuse values, and various intangible values. Economic impacts that open space lands have on local communities and economies include fiscal impacts on municipal budgets, expenditures from open space-related activities, and impacts from employment and tax revenues. These values are not universally present within a given community, nor are they quantitatively additive. However, a comprehensive consideration of the multiple values of open space will better inform community decisions about land conservation and development. KEY WORDS: Conservation; Economic value; Land use; Open space; Zoning     

A Nationwide Assessment of the Biodiversity Value of Uganda's Important Bird Areas Network

Abstract:  BirdLife International's Important Bird Areas (IBA) program is the most developed global system for identifying sites of conservation priority. There have been few assessments, however, of the conservation value of IBAs for nonavian taxa. We combined past data with extensive new survey results for Uganda's IBAs in the most comprehensive assessment to date of the wider biodiversity value of a tropical country's IBA network. The combined data set included more than 35,000 site × species records for birds, butterflies, and woody plants at 86 Ugandan sites (23,400 km²), including 29 of the country's 30 IBAs, with data on additional taxa for many sites. Uganda's IBAs contained at least 70% of the country's butterfly and woody plant species, 86% of its dragonflies and 97% of its birds. They also included 21 of Uganda's 22 major vegetation types. For butterflies, dragonflies, and some families of plants assessed, species of high conservation concern were well represented (less so for the latter). The IBAs successfully represented wider biodiversity largely because many have distinctive avifaunas and, as shown by high cross-taxon congruence in complementarity, such sites tended to be distinctive for other groups too. Cross-taxon congruence in overall species richness was weaker and mainly associated with differences in site size. When compared with alternative sets of sites selected using complementarity-based, area-based, or random site-selection algorithms, the IBA network was efficient in terms of the number of sites required to represent species but inefficient in terms of total area. This was mainly because IBA selection considers factors other than area, however, which probably improves both the cost-effectiveness of the network and the persistence of represented species.     

Assessing Risk to Birds from Industrial Wind Energy Development via Paired Resource Selection Models

When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework can be applied across multiple spatial scales to understand and mitigate impacts of industry on wildlife. We estimated risk to Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from wind energy development in 3 topographically distinct regions of the central Appalachian Mountains of Pennsylvania (United States) based on models of resource selection of wind facilities (n = 43) and of northbound migrating eagles (n = 30). Risk to eagles from wind energy was greatest in the Ridge and Valley region; all 24 eagles that passed through that region used the highest risk landscapes at least once during low altitude flight. In contrast, only half of the birds that entered the Allegheny Plateau region used highest risk landscapes and none did in the Allegheny Mountains. Likewise, in the Allegheny Mountains, the majority of wind turbines (56%) were situated in poor eagle habitat; thus, risk to eagles is lower there than in the Ridge and Valley, where only 1% of turbines are in poor eagle habitat. Risk within individual facilities was extremely variable; on average, facilities had 11% (SD 23; range = 0–100%) of turbines in highest risk landscapes and 26% (SD 30; range = 0–85%) of turbines in the lowest risk landscapes. Our results provide a mechanism for relocating high‐risk turbines, and they show the feasibility of this novel and highly adaptable framework for managing risk of harm to wildlife from industrial development. Evaluación del Riesgo para las Aves por el Desarrollo de Energía Eólica Industrial Mediante Modelos de Selección de Recursos Pareados.     

Foundations of Resilience Thinking

Through 3 broad and interconnected streams of thought, resilience thinking has influenced the science of ecology and natural resource management by generating new multidisciplinary approaches to environmental problem solving. Resilience science, adaptive management (AM), and ecological policy design (EPD) contributed to an internationally unified paradigm built around the realization that change is inevitable and that science and management must approach the world with this assumption, rather than one of stability. Resilience thinking treats actions as experiments to be learned from, rather than intellectual propositions to be defended or mistakes to be ignored. It asks what is novel and innovative and strives to capture the overall behavior of a system, rather than seeking static, precise outcomes from discrete action steps. Understanding the foundations of resilience thinking is an important building block for developing more holistic and adaptive approaches to conservation. We conducted a comprehensive review of the history of resilience thinking because resilience thinking provides a working context upon which more effective, synergistic, and systems‐based conservation action can be taken in light of rapid and unpredictable change. Together, resilience science, AM, and EPD bridge the gaps between systems analysis, ecology, and resource management to provide an interdisciplinary approach to solving wicked problems. Fundamentos del Pensamiento sobre Resiliencia